Wake me up when something happens

The Chinese market is DEAD. With the 10% duty on Chinese imports into the US looming along with a growing trade war between China and the US and the US with the world, no one wants to buy or sell ferroalloys.

Buyers of Chinese ferrosilicon don’t want to take the risk of the potential 10% extra duty and are either asking to split the risk with sellers or even US buyers, but only half heartedly. In reality, no one needs the material now anyway.

Ore sellers, both manganese and chrome, aren’t in a rush to even quote knowing that buyers only want lower prices and without making any firm commitments.

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Con Meyer
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Con Meyer

I believe the new hot metal/commodity is Vanadium due to higher reguirement in rebar in China and due to the new Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries being used with solar batteries and wind farms. Any comments on that will be appreciated.
Thanks.

Tan
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Tan

Spot prices are 7300-7700 RMB as of now, depending on location (against 7550-7800 RMB in July monthly contract prices in those corresponding locations). So, 250-100 RMB slashed already; more if one considers the RMB depreciation in past 4 weeks. In any case China has become a net importer of Stainless Steel, so we will have to start seeing Indonesian/Korean/Japanese prices also. Besides, in Q1, global Stainless Steel production grew by 9.5% YoY. That’s 4.5% more than the 5% growth projected. Therefore, the (-)4.5% has to be adjusted. Not sure if that has already been done in Q2.

Tan
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Tan

Headline Today, seen subsequently: “China launches dumping probe into steel imports from Indonesia, EU, Japan, and South Korea”! The headline, as usual, does not catch the basics i.e. stainless steel but the text does. Times are changing when it comes to market structure. Japan is following European benchmark plus 4 cents (not a rule probably but seen over 1-2 years) and then getting a discount from FeCr suppliers. Not sure what’s happening in Indonesia or Korea.