Ferroglobe has seemingly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Even after the Canadian government ruled that Ferroglobe’s silicon smelter was not injured or would likely be injured by imports, most importers are still scared to resume normal sales into the country.
And, the Canadian prices should be theoretically significant cheaper than US prices, especially if the US government does impose duties, since there would be considerably more competition in Canada.
What’s the problem? It’s Ferroglobe appealing the Canadian decision. The importers are afraid they will be subject to retroactive penalty duties.
In order see if the importers fears and founded, I asked an astute Canadian trade lawyer to comment:
intherightvein: In talking with importers and consumers, they are all frozen by the possibility that GSM will win its expected appeal of the CBSA and CIIT decision not to impose duties. Lawyer: EASIER SAID THAN DONE – ON MATTERS OF INTERPRETATION OF FACTS THE CITT GETS CONSIDERABLE DEFERENCE. THE STANDARD IS REASONABLENESS NOT CORRECTNESS.
intherightvein: Who hears the appeal?
Lawyer: FEDERAL COURT OF APPEAL
intherightvein: During the appeal process, will there be any penalty duties imposed? (probably not but I have to ask)
intherightvein: If GSM wins the appeal, does the case restart or is the decision sent back to the CIIT and CBSA to review and then make a new decision (this is what happens in the US:
Lawyer: THE SAME PROCESS – REFERRAL BACK THIS MAY OR MAY NOT CHANGE THE DECISION
intherightvein: Can it ping pong back and forth between appeals and appeals and take years?
Lawyer: 18 MONTHS IS NOT UNUSUAL. IF THEIR REQUEST IS REJECTED BY FCA CONCEIVABLY THEY COULD SEEK LEAVE TO APPEAL TO SUPREME COURT. SUPREME COURT IS PICKY ABOUT WHAT IT HEARS – 12-15% OF APPLICATIONS.
intherightvein: Will the importers EVER be on the hook if GSM wins —- this is the big question???
Lawyer: THEY COULD BUT TRIBUNAL IS RARELY REVERSED
intherightvein: How long does it usually take
Lawyer: 18 MONTHS TO TWO YEARS
intherightvein: And finally how likely is that GSM would win. Lawyer: HARD TO SAY I THINK CITT WEBSITE SAYS THEY ARE 98% SUCCESFUL